Arq. Bras. Cardiol. 2023; 120(2): e20220250

A Simple Clinical Risk Score to Predict Post-Discharge Mortality in Chinese Patients Hospitalized with Heart Failure

Guillermo Alberto Arana Morales , Hugo Alpaca-Salvador , Ricardo Salazar-Ramírez

DOI: 10.36660/abc.2022050

We have read with great interest the article published by Wang et al. on the clinical risk score to predict mortality in Chinese patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF). The authors developed a scale with five variables to predict mortality from HF after hospital discharge within one year: age, female sex, New York Heart Association (NYHA) score >3, left atrial diameter, and body mass index; with good predictive ability. One limitation of the study is the design of random division into two groups, one for the development of the predictive model and the other to evaluate its performance, which, when drawn from the same cohort, have similar characteristics and therefore the predictive performance may be overestimated.

A very interesting aspect of the study is that it focuses on the evaluation of patients with HF at hospital discharge, uses simple, easily assessable predictive variables, and predicts mortality at one year. There are a variety of studies of prognostic scores for HF, in outpatient, hospitalized, or emergency patients, and they predict mortality during hospitalization, within the first 30 days, or a year; many of them with biases that limit their validity.

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