Arq. Bras. Cardiol. 2017; 108(5): 470-472

Prediction Models for Decision-Making on Chagas Disease

Fernanda de Souza Nogueira Sardinha Mendes, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do Brasil

DOI: 10.5935/abc.20170059

To investigate the relationship between future or unknown outcomes and baseline health states among people with specific conditions, prediction models are an interesting strategy used to assist diagnosis, prognosis and treatment. They estimate the likelihood of clinical events taking into account clinical relevant measures and complementary tests. These predictors and their importance vary between the different events of interest and their prediction ability varies when considered singly or in combination with other predictors. They may facilitate simple and direct comparisons of risks, individualize treatment regimens, and may refine prognosis stratification of patients, especially when many prognostic factors are known. Models have to be simple, easy to use and lead the clinician to make decisions which are more likely to bring benefit to the patients.

The World Health Organization estimates that 7-8 million people worldwide are infected with T.cruzi. Chagas disease is endemic in Latin America and the immigration pattern in the past years has made this disease an important health issue in many countries. In United States, more than 300,000 individuals might be infected and one study estimated that 3.5% of immigrants to Canada from Latin America were infected. Physicians should be able to recognize signs and symptoms of Chagas disease as globalization increase the burden of this disease in non-Latin American countries, where vector transmission is unlikely to occur.

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